GOP Is Dying

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Last night was a bad one for Republicans. It will get a lot worse in future elections. Demography Matters has a good synopsis of the growing concern within the Grand Old Party. I reside in a bellwether county (Loudoun) in a battleground state (Virginia) and can vouch for the anxiety. The eastern (closer to Washington, DC) and more suburban part of the county was pro-Obama. The western and more rural part of the county was Romney country. The population overall is booming, as well as more wealthy, educated, and diverse. A traditional GOP stronghold is trending blue:

District by district, Algonkian, Ashburn, Broad Run, Dulles, Leesburg and Sterling came in with more votes for Barack Obama, while western Loudoun districts Blue Ridge and Catoctin favored Mitt Romney. For the Senate race, the results were similar although Tim Kaine’s opponent George Allen won the Ashburn district by 10 votes.

The success of Kaine and Obama in Loudoun may surprise some political onlookers, who noted that in 2011, voters almost unanimously selected Republican representatives, ousting several Democrat and Independent incumbents.

The switch between a predominantly Republican outcome to a strongly Democratic one only adds to Loudoun’s placement as a swing county in Virginia.

Turnout was low in the 2011 election. Turnout was very high for yesterday's contest. It's a matter of getting out the vote. The demographic trends are against Republicans winning. Greg Giroux with an even more telling political geography:

Miami-Dade (2.5m pop, 65% Hispanic) past 4 WH races: Gore '00 52.6%, Kerry '04 52.9%, Obama '08 57.9%, Obama '12 62.0%

Like Virginia, Florida is slipping away. Some clever gerrymandering should buy the party some time to figure out what to do. The GOP is, literally in some counties, dying.